Plimco Say the UK is Going to be OK

I am always pretty sure that the UK is going to continue to be an economic strength despite the somewhat hard times we have been experiencing. It is always good to have outside confirmation of this though.

The UK have been backed by the world’s second largest bond house, Pimco, after they changed their aggressive stance against Britain’s gilts.

This is a major turn around from the beginning of the year when the very same company warned that the UK gilts (gilt-edged security) were “resting on a bed of nitroglycerine” as a result of the nations high levels of debt.

Strong words indeed and they caused a lot of angst at the time.

But after Pimco talking down the UK for much of the year they now seemed pleased since yields, which fell as gilt prices improved, have recovered from 4.27pc in February to 3.39pc.

The bond house have been quoted as saying “We do not expect the UK to fail in meeting its commitments”. For expert investors, Pimco added: “We believe exposure to the UK in the credit default swap (CDS) market offers a valuable opportunity.”

This dramatic change of stance has been put down to the Governments plan to attack the deficit. Mike Amey, an executive vice-president stated in his bid to support the Coalition Government “The coalition has demonstrated their intent to tackle the deficit immediately, and we think that is generally good news.”
I for one am happy with this new opinion, as I believe it shows the world that Britain is making a come back from our recession and that the likelihood of a ‘double-dip’ recession has decreased.

Austerity measures may well be as much about world opinion as anything else and I suppose we must look at the big picture for the UK economy.


Exciting Figures As UK Economy Strengthens

The UK is showing how strong it can be, confounding experts by growing at almost double the rate predicted in the past three months. It did trigger some thoughts in me concerning the necessity of some of the austerity measures, in particular the redundancies and taxation changes really need to be as severe as planned. But more about that in a minute.

For now let’s revel in some numbers

Gross domestic product (GDP) in the quarter to June leapt at an amazing 1.1pc, the most since the first three months of 2006, lifting sterling 1.2pc against the dollar. Economists had forecast just 0.6pc growth as a realistic aim.

The surge was driven by an astounding recovery in construction and the fortitude of Britain’s powerhouse services sectors. This puts UK growth for the first half at 1.4pc – already ahead of the Treasury’s own forecasts of 1.2pc for the full 12 months.

Capital Economics, which was predicting a 1pc annual increase, revised its position, describing the numbers as “a pleasant surprise” and saying: “The figures suggest that growth in 2010 overall may now be closer to 1.5pc.”

Although universally welcomed, the speed of growth reignited debate about the Chancellor’s savage austerity measures to get the public finances under control. In the short term, the planned £40bn of tax rises and spending cuts are expected to soak up demand and kill off growth.

My opinion is that messing with the UK taxation now, after such an impressive surge in the right direction is playing with fire. The government should allow the economy to recover more before throwing their unwanted weight around.


Socially Responsible Immigration Into the UK?

In recent news there has been yet more talks on the immigration limit that the Government is now setting on Britain.

I think I back the government’s present approach. They have decided to take control, assuring us that they recognise the importance of immigration but also the strain it could put on society if left untended. I believe people do worry about this sort of thing and their re assurances are welcome. I am not so sure, however that arbitrary limitations are the way forward.

The temporary limit the Coalition has set in place will become permanent next year and will be set every year, in accordance to the needs of businesses and the wider population.

The limit we have set between now and the end of March next year is 24,100. This is 1,300 less than the number of those who came into the UK for the same time period last year.

I believe that many immigrants have enriched British society and created opportunity for all British people, in regards to the rest of the world. The economic immigration brings economic benefits and cultural diversity to the UK. This will never change.

However, the Government believes that creating this socially responsible immigration policy will restore the public confidence in the system. That it will create both good race and community relations and for the orderly provision of public services. We will see how that works out in practice.

The coalition would like to create an effective, well controlled immigration system.

I have seen that many immigrants are attracted to Britain, especially around the London area, showing the strength of our capital city and the fact we get an influx of the brightest and best, will only make us stronger as a nation


Interest Rates To Rise Or Not To Rise

Andrew Sentance was on his own in calling for a rise in interest rates from 0.5pc to 0.75pc for a second month running. With VAT up, taxes up and employment down it seems to be one of the few things to stay stagnant.

Mr. Sentance argued that “the inflation outlook had shifted sufficiently to justify beginning to raise interest rates gradually”.

The rate of inflation has remained constantly high this year and despite falling 0.5pc, from 3.7pc to 3.2pc in the past two months, is still way above the banks target of 2pc. However the call was denied again as majority of members believe inflation will fall over time.

The minutes from a Bank of England rate-settlement meeting read “the weight of evidence from both home and abroad continued to indicate that the margin of spare capacity was likely to bear down on inflation and bring it back to the target in the medium once the impact of temporary factors had worn off.”

This time however, there was some sympathy with Mr. Sentance as policymakers acknowledged that inflation is “likely to remain above target for some months as the impact of the past increases in indirect taxes and oil prices, and the depreciation of sterling offset downward pressure on inflation from spare capacity”.

The increase in VAT to 20pc is also “likely to add to inflation [as] some companies may anticipate the increase by raising prices in advance”. They fear a rise in “medium-term inflation expectations” becoming entrenched by feeding into pay settlements.

However, the “committee’s central view remained that the substantial margin of spare capacity was likely to persist for some time and would bear down on inflation over the medium term”.

In my humble opinion this view is good, UK tax payers are happy to keep the 0.5pc interest rate, Mr. Sentance needs to stop pushing for this and let the market settle in its own time. It seems there are more than one or two experts who agree with me.


Immigration In the UK A Hot Topic

In recent news there have been yet more talks on the immigration limit that the Government is now setting on Britain. It seems immigration is very much the topic of the moment

The Government have decided to take control, assuring us that they recognise the importance of immigration but also the strain it could put on society if left untended.

The temporary limit the Coalition has set in place will become permanent next year and will be set every year, in accordance to the needs of businesses and the wider population.

The limit we have set between now and the end of March next year is 24,100. This is 1,300 less than the number of those who came into the UK for the same time period last year.

I believe that many immigrants have enriched British society and created opportunity for all British people, in regards to the rest of the world. The economic immigration brings economic benefits and cultural diversity to the UK. This will never change.

However, the Government believes that creating this socially responsible immigration policy will restore the public confidence in the system. That it will create both good race and community relations and for the orderly provision of public services.

The coalition would like to create an effective, well controlled immigration system.

It is clear that many immigrants are attracted to Britain. I believe this is a complement to us. The fact we get an influx of the brightest and best, will only make us stronger as a nation.


ICT Immigration To Add to UK Prosperity

I have recently read that new figures have been released relativing to the large scale of immigrant workers coming into Britain via the ICT system.

The ‘intra-company transfers’ that are being referred to as a ‘loop hole’, is what companies are using to get around the recently announced Conservative manifesto pledge.

The pledge, put in place by the Home Secretary, Theresa May, several weeks back, states that there shall be a limited number of migrant workers allowed into Britain from outside the EU, no more than 24,400 shall be granted access.

There are worries over the exploitation of the ICT system, as they believe it threatens the Governments plan to scale back migration levels in order to reflect the numbers in Britain from the 1990′s.

The Home Office has released a list of over 20,000 employers who have signed up to the programme to bring skilled migrant workers to the UK. The list was published on the UK Border Agency website weeks back, names range from Chelsea Football Club to hundreds of restaurants and takeaways.

From where I stand this is not a problem, I agree with Damien Green, the Immigration Minister “It is important that we attract the brightest and the best people who can make a real difference to our economic growth”.
The ICT system is a wonderful way for Britain to become one of the most diverse countries in the world, with the most skilled workers doing their best for the UK’s economy.


Cut Immigration: Slow Growth

In an interesting story on immigration this week the Office For Budget Responsibility has come out and stated that cuts to immigration now will result in a slow down in economic growth as soon as 2014.

It is great when people actually start talking the real truth about immigration instead of all the xenophobic nonsense that it sometimes feels like the press are force feeding us. The OBR reasons that in a society where the population is ageing immigration is not just to be tolerated but is in fact a necessity.

The OBR was formed in May 2010 to give an independent and informed opinion of budget and public finances. They have nothing to gain by stating that drastic cuts to immigration would be a dire mistake, it is just the unvarnished truth. How refreshing.

Immigration into the UK has dropped from a height of 233 000 to 50 000 in recent times. The OBR argue that this combined with low British birth rates will have a huge and profound effect on the UK economy, weaken the pound and result in high unemployment.
Rather than the paradise some newspapers would have us believe Britain would be without immigration this does not sound like much fun at all. Fancy that!


UK Top For European Investors

Despite what sometimes feels like the best efforts of successive governments and the UK press, the UK is still top of the pile when it comes to European investment. Even though the press seems determined to talk nonsense about non doms owing the UK something more, European investors still see the UK as a very attractive place to spend their money.

In 2009, the UK attracted 678 investment projects, which gave us 2017 jobs. Terrible what all these foreigners are doing to our beloved Britain, hey?

“When seen in the context of 12 months during which the European economy suffered a deep recession, the resilience of the UK in securing FDI [foreign direct investment] is a remarkable economic success story,” said James Close, a partner at Ernst & Young.

Quite and and it is even more remarkable given the attitude of some people toward foreign investment.


ID Cards Scrapped, But No Refund

The interesting immigration story of the month is that ID cards, which it seems to me Labour had been trying to sneak in via the back door for years, have been scrapped.

That is all to the good as far as I am concerned, I never could work out the point of the darn things anyway. But it is perturbing for some people who having been just recently paid 30 pound to obtain one are now told that they are not required but they will not be getting their money back. This seems like a bit of a kick in the guts for people who were clearly trying to do the right thing and follow the rules.

In the capacity that Labour had managed to get them in they were to work as a replacement for a passport when traveling through EU countries. It seems people who purchased these in good faith will now be forced to go back to old fashioned methods and get a passport. But they will not be getting a thirty quid discount on that document. Their expenditure is just tough.


Election 2010: What Was That All About?

Wow, I like most of the country was completely speechless by close of play on Friday night. What on earth just happened? The actual result of the UK election, even though we are two days out from it is still unsure. It is not often that has happened in recent times in the UK and it makes it tricky to talk in any meaningful way about what the result will be for issues close to our heart such as The UK economy and immigration into the UK. VAT and its predicted increases are still a complete mystery.

So are there any general conclusions we can draw from where we are now?

It is true to say that the confusion is not good for the UK economy, things are likely to worsen if some decision is not made soon. That is not something that can be allowed to happen. It seems to me that both the Lib Dems and the Labour party lost ground so do we take the chance of having a Labour government propped by the Lib Dems? It could be construed as losers backing up losers.

I am not partisan in these thing at all, I am a totally swinging voter but I cannot help thinking that if Tory did not actually win the election they lost it least.

In the meantime we will all wait with bated breath for the powers that be to make a decision. Let’s hope they get on with it quickly, as far as the international financial market is concerned either party in government is better than no government at all.


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